This market report is going to start a little differently. With everything that is out there and with the way that I know many people are feeling I thought we'd start with a slight opinion piece. What is going on out there?

Could today mark the end of the hike cycle? Some say yes, and some say no. Some say there’s going to be another aggressive hike; some say it’ll be a baby hike.

What are you to believe? I’ll leave this to the Bank of Canada to announce in about an hour, if I have to take a position. I’d guess from what the previous language was that we’re going to close out the year with a small 25bps raise (.25%) and potentially have another increase in January. But it is the BoC so we'll wait and see. Maybe they hit us with less, maybe they hit us with 50bps. Still, if we see 25 today and then another in January, by then, according to our awesome mortgage broker, we’d have hit the Terminal Rate, and the hike cycle should have ended.

I was having a conversaion with a few people and was asked a question after I made a comment that a million things make an economy move so to talk about only a few is a mistake. So the question was "What are they?"

It’s a very good question. And one that I think more realtors need to be asking of themselves before they start talking or offering advice.

You know I love social media......well not always, but it is a huge piece of my business. Social media though has also given a platform for many to put out opinions, which I'm sure we can all agree isn't always great. But in a free market like this, it’s a good thing, well, sometimes. However, when, as a consumer, you’re exposed to these “professionals” you don’t know what to believe, what’s real, what’s not, what’s irrelevant, and what’s completely blown out of proportion.

How do you make sure you’re getting the correct information?

Before I get into this, it’s important to note that prices don’t come down because they’re too high. And comments like “this is not sustainable” are meaningless. Never in the history of time has an upmarket been sustained or a downmarket sustained.

They each have an expiry date due to various economic conditions. Both locally and globally.

The only thing you can control is where you get your information. So I’ll give you some Red Flags to avoid while you're consuming different opinions and content.


Red Flag 1: Anomalies as fact

Is the person you’re listening to highlighting a rare occurrence and making it seem like a huge problem? An example would be the “I told you so” comments, as they showcase properties selling for less today than they did at the market’s overinflated peak. They are then claiming that everything is in free fall. This is the same as an upmarket like we'd had from early in the pandemic. They say, "this chaos is never going to stop"

However, with the market over the last few months, many buyers who entered into contracts from January to March of this year, with closing dates in the Summer or later, were in a position where they had to close on properties that were worth less than they had paid for them a few months prior.

Some of those buyers couldn’t close, so the Sellers had to re-list them and eventually sold them at a loss.

So the Red Flag agent/person would go on social media and say, “look, I told you, here comes the flood of defaults.” But a whole lot of context was missing. The fact that the occurrence was rare was not mentioned. The fact that the Seller would have had the opportunity to access the deposit funds of the original buyer to make up for the difference in sale price wasn’t mentioned, and the fact that this only happened a handful of times, not affecting the market as a whole, was not mentioned.

But they got attention and could feel super important in their echo chamber as Garth Turner wannabes.


Red Flag 2: Old Macro Data

People who focus on old data.

If the agent or content provider you’re listening to isn’t tracking the market weekly, you’re exposed to old data that may not be relevant today.

Most agents, brokerages, teams etc.. don’t take the time to pull their data. They wait until the RAHB (Real Estate Association of Hamilton Burlington) or TRREB (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) releases their monthly figures, then suddenly, you see a flood of infographics (I make my prettiest ones only once amonth too though even though I'm pulling data weekly, every Monday) with an average price this, sales volume that, with a bunch of arrows pointing up and down.

There’s no actual context; you don’t know what areas they’re tracking. It means nothing to the family living in a townhouse up on the escarpment or the banker living in their Lakeshore mansion.

Markets move faster today than they did 10yrs ago, so weekly data pulls and translating is essential.

What’s even more important is having a Micro focus for Macro impact.

Meaning, to drill down into custom searches and pull data that matters to where YOU live, work, and play. Me, reading and deciphering dated monthly stats for the whole entire Greater Hamilton Area, or the GTA, 416 or 905 doesn't work, Worse is that most news outlets only report on all of Canada which has an extra layer of "almost irrelevant", it basically means nothing to the micro markets.

It could seem like the sky is falling when it’s possibly not for you and your very personalized situation.

If you'd like my weekly reports just let me know and I'll get you hooked up. It's just a quick email delivered every week that breaks down what the market is doing right now......not a month back.


Red Flag 3: The Victim

This one ties into Red Flag 1 because they often say, “I told you so, and you didn’t believe me, and you hated on me, but look, here it is. I said it was happening.”

This red flag agent/person/journalist loves it when bad things happen. It allows them to dive deeper into your emotions and get more fear-based attention. They thrive off the comments, energy and being deemed a “truth teller” by mobs of pessimists who’ve never actually invested in real estate.

This same person will also say, “see, I told you that prices don’t always go up,” and then show you similar properties trading for less.

I don’t think any successful agent has ever said prices always go up. They don't.....ever. I always say "the ebb and flow of the market" meaning things are up and down constantly. This is an out-of-context soundbite some attention seekers and headline writers like to use to get you to believe they’re the only ones telling the truth.

Suppose you look at any chart focused on Ontario Real Estate, like the ones I'll put below so you can see last months numbers. If you zoom out and look long-term, it sure looks like it’s trending upward.

But The Victim will tell you that “agents are saying prices will always go up, and they’re lying…see” and then point to a property that sold for less than a comparable a few months ago.


Red Flag 4: The Over-Optimist

These are the agents that give you blanket statements, like "it's always a good time to buy/sell/invest". Once again, is it always a good time to own real estate? I would argue that it is 100% of the time a great option. But, making overly optimistic statements, without context or without breaking down the micro markets and scenerios isn't serving you. 

If you make certain moves in certain markets and at certain times, it is absolutely a costly decision. It doesn't mean it's wrong. It just means that financially it's not opportune.

Again, micro markets (which are the markets You are buying in or selling in) is all that matters. The macroeconomics can and do of course effect them, albeit not always in the same way. Before making decisions you really need to have a very personalized breakdown of what Your markets are doing and how You alone are being or will be affected.

Anyway I think that's enough for this week on this topic. I'd love to hear your comments on this. Who do you get your real estate content from? What's your opinion?

I hope you found this helpful

Now lets see some numbers and a slightly broad overview with a little context of our local markets. Again though, if you would like my weekly report or a your own personalized breakdown of Your market, send me a message and I'll get you set up.

     
     

HAMILTON
   
   

HALDIMAND COUNTY


Like most other areas, Haldimand as a whole has experienced easing sales relative to supply levels and downward pressure on home prices. In addition, higher lending rates are like in many other areas, weighing on potential purchasers, slowing sales activity. However, despite recent declines, year-to- date sales are still comparable to levels achieved prior to the pandemic.